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【新闻】聚劲论坛: Brexit–Nostalgia & dreams VS E-reality 英国脱欧-乡愁与梦VS经济现实

2017复旦MBA·聚劲论坛

 

Brexit-Nostalgia and dreams VS Economic reality

英国脱欧 - 乡愁与梦 VS 经济现实 

 

主讲嘉宾:Richard Tudway

practicing economist andeconomic advisor

visiting professor at several international businesses schools

 

精彩回顾

 

 

 

   Professor Richard Tudway gave us a brilliant speech about Brexit-nostalgia and dreams versus economicreality in 22nd Nov. The impact of the global financial crisis and the illusion of British economic strength. In the period 2007-2016 EU growth weakened following Wall Street financial crisis. The conservative government has relied on austerity in a bid to restore economic stabilization. Brexit will change nothing in terms of austerity relief.  British growth has weakened whilst the EU and the Euro zone are recovering strongly.

 

  11月22日, Richard Tudway 教授给我们带来了一场精彩的讲座,主题为:英国退欧- 乡愁梦想 VS 经济现实的主题演讲。即使受到全球金融危机的影响,英国依旧对英国经济充满乐观。虽然受华尔街金融危机影响,2007年-2016年欧洲经济持续走弱,但保守党依靠紧缩政策维持了经济稳定,事实上英国的经济增长呈现弱势,同时欧盟和欧元区正在强势复苏。

 

  Brexit will weaken growth still further and worsen the state of Britain's public finances. Post-Brexit economice renaissance is anothergrand delusion. The exposure of the British economy interms of fundamentals. Inaccurate representations of Brexit statistics on payments to and from the EU have been used to promote a fantasy thatmore will be available to support British public services once Britain leaves. These EU claw-back payment take the form of support grants for agricultural, regional, social and economic development , university research and other private sector support.

 

  退欧影响了英国经济的增长,并且使英国公共财政情况持续恶化。退欧后的经济复苏被认为是另一个巨大的基于经济基础所揭露的经济真实现状,并不准确反应退欧之后的财务统计,让人不切实际地以为会有更多的支持退欧后的英国公共服务。欧洲回拨付款是通过支持农业、地区社会和经济发展、大学研究和其它部门支持发展的形式回拨。

 

  The Brexiteers promise – a land of milk and honey. The British economy - unbalanced and unsustainable. Britain unshackled from budget and singlemarket obligations, will grow and prosper. The worsening balance of trade with the EU and the world will magically disappear without explanation. Britain's trade deficit is a reflection of Britain's relative weakness in terms of productivity and comparative advantage. Britain's great exporting industries havebeen destroyed. In 2016 the country accounted for 2.5% of global trade comparedwith 25% in 1950.

 

  支持退欧者的承诺 - 一个富饶富足的乐园 。英国经济已经是不平衡的,英国将不再受到预算和区域市场保护政策影响,将会开始成长和繁荣,和欧盟之间的贸易合作也会变得越来越糟糕,曾经的合作顷刻间就戛然而止,英国的贸易赤字就是英国在生产力和竞争优势上逐渐衰退的表现。2016年在全球出口中占比2.5% 而在1950年时占比25%,表明英国最大的出口行业已经被摧毁。

 

 

 

Where does the balance of the argument realistically lie?  

Britain is far better off "IN" and "OUT". 

关于这场争论的平衡点究竟在哪里?

英国“IN”会比 “OUT”更繁荣。

 

  The lesson of history are important 1974 the Conservtive Prime Minister Edward Health sough membership of the EU after earlier re-buffs. The recent dispute between Boeing(American) and Bombardier (Canadian) both of which have manufacturing subsidiaries in Britain is a portend of likely future difficulties if Britain leavesthe EU. Economic growth will weaken, inflation andinterest rates will rise- along with unemployment – with investment falling. The steady decline of Britain’s domestic industrial base had stimulated a spectacular inflow of FDI (foreign directinvestment). Now it’s the end of the FDI bonanza. Significantly Airbus Industrie, a European aerospace company , a major force in the global civil aircraft industry with several subsidiary plants in the UK will almost certainly migrate back to the EU in the event of Brexit. Elsewhere Siemens (German), Hitachi (Japan) and Bombardier (Canada) are constructors of railway units and related infrastructure along with aircraft wings will be adversely impacted if supplychains are adversely impacted.

 

  回顾历史,1974年保守党首相 EdwardHealth曾寻求欧盟成员国的一席之地。最近在Boeing (美国)和 Bombardier (加拿大)公司之间发生一场争论,因为两家公司在英国都有加工子公司,这体现了英国脱欧在未来会带来的困难,例如经济增长将会放缓,通胀和利率将会走高,随之而来的是高失业率和低投资率。英国国内产业基础的直线下滑曾经吸引了外资的流入,而现在到了外资红利终结的时期。例如,大型的航空行业,一家欧洲的航天工业公司,主要做全球民用机市场,有几个辅助的飞机在英国,也将全部调回欧洲基于脱欧的影响。另外西门子 (德国)日立(日本)和 Bombardier  (加拿大) 作为铁路联合搭建商,负责相关基础设施将会因机翼部件的供应链问题受到牵连。

 

  Why have these businesses migrated to Britain? The EU single market connection is key. First there are important gaps in theBritish market which can easily be exploited because local competition is notstrong. Second British owners and investors have been prepared to sell out. Immigrationof EU citizens into Britain is viewed as a major socio political concern. 

 

  为什么会有商业进入英国呢?和欧盟单一市场的链接是关键。首先,英国市场容易被开发,在于这个市场并没有很强的竞争对手。其次,英国企业主和投资人也已经准备将业务进行出售,来自欧洲的移民被认为是具有很大的政治风险的。

 

 

The pervasive myth of sovereignty

流行普遍的主权神话

 

  By taking back control the man in the street is promised that Brexit will return sovereignty to the British people. Once  again laws will be made by the British parliament implying that laws are passedin the EU and forced upon the helpless, unwilling British people. The scale of internationalization of the British economy- means that a very large proportion of British industrial activity is produced by entities which are domiciled and controlledfrom outside Britain. As British registered subsidiaries they are subject to British corporate and commercial law but the locus of their ownership and power lies elsewhere.

 

  人们承诺说退欧后权利将交回给英国,再一次,英国人将自己来制定法律法规,这暗示了先前欧盟所通过的法案是如何强加在无助的英国人们身上。英国经济国际化的规模意味着大比重的英国产业是实体产业,但是很多都是被在英国以外的地方所控制着。即使在英国注册的公司,遵从于英国公司和英国商业法则但是他们的产业和权势是无处不在。

 

Trade deals, the EU and the Britain – the facts Definitely better in the EU than out

显而易见,在欧盟比脱欧更好- 欧盟和英国之间的贸易协定

 

  British businesses benefit from direct access to the single EU market of 500 million consumers-largest in value in the world. The EU is top trading partner for 80 countries compared with 20 for theus. Brexiteers argue that the UK would be able to significantly increase accessto global markets with no explanation as to how this will be achieved.

 

  英国贸易受益于欧洲独立市场最有价值的5亿消费者用户。欧盟是世界上最顶级的贸易伙伴有80个国家网络,相比美国只有20个。退欧支持者提出英国将在国际市场合作比例有巨大的增长,然而并没有解释如何才能实现这个目标。

 

What of the EU and its future- a final thought the vision of a unified Europe is the right vision.

关于欧盟和它的未来--最终的思考:一个统一的欧洲愿景更为正确

 

  The EU and the Euro area are far from perfect as man-made institutions. But any honest assessment must recognize thatthe EU reflects a fundamental realism about how best the European region andits people can best manage the complex economic, social and political global environment in which it operates. It has however brought greater economic and politicalbenefits to many millions of EU citizens. Time for Britain to wake up to the realityof its place in the world. It has a far more important role in strengtheningthe EU from within. Time for Britiain to invest its talent and focus its energyon helping to build a better and more secure place for all citizens of the EU.

 

  作为一个人造的体系,欧盟和欧洲地区还远远不完美。但是诚实的说,欧盟体现了如何最佳地在欧盟地区管理复杂的经济社会和政治问题。欧盟已经给千万欧盟人民带来巨大的经济和政治利益,是时候英国需要醒悟他们在国际中的位置。英国从欧盟内部起着很重要的强化欧盟的作用,是时候英国人需要更多的投资在它的人才建设上,将它的资源运用在帮欧洲打造更好更安全的环境。

 

  Professor Richard Tudway also raise major unresolved Brexit issues and the major challenges to us. Like the heavy financial implications of divorcefrom the EU.Rights of all EU Citizens in Britain andhow these will be honored.

 

  Richard Tudway 教授也指出了退欧后悬而未决的问题,及退欧后所带来的挑战。例如,退欧后所带来的承重的财务负担。欧盟公民在英国的权利如何在后续被尊重等。 

关于我们

    复旦“聚劲论坛”(Fudan Join Forum)是由复旦MBA学生在复旦大学管理学院的支持下发起和组织的高层次国际商业论坛。这是国内第一个由MBA学生自主发起和组织、并按市场方式运作的高层次商业论坛,自99年成立至今为止已有18年的历史。  

 

     “聚劲论坛”致力于为MBA学生创造一个与全球最杰出的企业家及国际知名企业的高级经理人面对面交流的平台,使他们能够吸纳企业家的经营智慧,从真实的企业案例中丰富他们的管理知识,拓宽他们的商业视野。同时“聚劲论坛”也为企业家及高级经理人提供了一个传播经营管理理念及展示企业家风范的舞台。

 

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学无涯,共享思维盛筵。

 


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