现代产业经济学系列讲座第157-158期

现代产业经济学系列讲座第157期

时间：2018年10月23日（周二） 15:00-16:30

地点：史带楼603室

主题：Viral Social Learning

主讲人：宋阳波 博士，香港中文大学（深圳）经管学院

主持人：陆卓然 博士

摘要：We study social learning with a "viral" feature: on a continuous time line, a group of consumers need to each make a decision of whether to adopt a product, where awareness of the product is transmitted from adopting consumers to new ones. A consumer bases her action on the time she becomes aware at as well as her private signal about product quality. We find a unique equilibrium depicting the product's life cycle: consumers start with herding on adoption given high initial belief and being sensitive to signals given low initial belief, then use mixed strategies which keep beliefs constant, followed by a period of relying on signals, and finally reject the product once and for all when beliefs fall below a threshold. When strategic quality choice of the supply side is taken into account, we find an inverse relationship between quality improvement cost and average quality in the market. We also characterize conditions under which a competitive market is more or less socially preferred than a monopoly market.

现代产业经济学系列讲座第158期

时间：2018年11月2日 13:30-15:00

地点：史带楼602室

主题：The Hot Hand Fallacy Fallacy

主讲人：Joshua Miller （University of Alicante)

主持人：李玲芳 副教授

摘要：The hot hand fallacy has long been considered a massive and widespread cognitive illusion with important implications for decision making. We uncover a subtle, but critical, statistical bias that invalidates previous evidence supporting the hot hand fallacyin its canonical domain, basketball shooting. We re-assess and re-analyze basketball shooting and betting data. We find that the hot hand exists, and that players can bet on it successfully.

主讲人简介：

Joshua Miller is an economist at the University of Alicante (Spain). He received his PhD in Economics from the University of Minnesota. He works primarily in the areas of behavioral and experimental economics. His current research interests focus on information processing, judgment under uncertainty, and belief aggregation.

产业经济学系

2018-10-18