现代产业经济学系列讲座第282期
时间：2025年6月4日（周三）10:00-11:30
地点： 复旦管院思源楼326室
题目： Is Prospect Theory Really a Theory of Choice?
主讲人：吴济龙 博士
主持人：吴乐珍 老师
abstract：Using new experiments we show that the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes, “the most distinctive implication of prospect theory” (Tversky and Kahneman, 1992, p. 279), does not actually appear in lottery choice. Instead, it is a special phenomenon of explicitly elicited lottery valuations. Conducting a meta-analysis, we show that the same is true of decades worth of previous data, calling into question prospect theory’s ability to predict risky choice. We show theoretically (and verify empirically) that both probability weighting and its failure to produce the fourfold pattern in lottery choice are a consequence of cognitive imperfections in evaluations of lotteries.
BIO: Jilong Wu is a PhD candidate in the Department of Economics at Ghent University, Belgium.
His research interests include behavioral economics, experimental economics, and development economics. Now, he is focusing on the determinants & measurements of individual risk and ambiguity attitudes, using laboratory experiments and meta-analysis as his primary research tools.
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