管理科学系学术讲座

时间：2024年1月11日（周四） 10:00-11:30

地点：管理学院思源楼524室

主题：The Bullwhip Effect and Stock Returns

主讲人：Vinod Singhal 乔治亚理工学院谢勒商学院教授

主持人：吴肖乐复旦大学管理学院教授

摘要：

The bullwhip effect (BWE) is an important phenomenon in the operations and supply chain management field. Although it is commonly accepted that the BWE is widespread and can have a significant adverse impact on financial performance, there is surprisingly limited objective evidence on the financial consequences of the BWE. This paper examines the impact of the BWE on financial performance by examining the relationship between the BWE and stock price performance. The empirical analysis is based on data from 1985 to 2018 from about 7,200 publicly traded firms and about 64,000 firm-years. We find that most results on the impact of the BWE on stock returns are statistically indistinguishable from zero. The few marginally significant results that we find suggest a positive relationship between the BWE and stock returns rather than the expected negative relationship. However, these marginally significant results do not hold when alternate methods are used to test the relationships. These conclusions are robust when we segment the sample by size, industry, and time periods. We also do not find a significant relationship between the BWE and stock returns for samples based on the propagation of the BWE from customers to suppliers. We do find some evidence to suggest that the BWE has a negative impact on inventory turnover. However, we do not find similar evidence for capacity utilization. The relationships between the BWE and return on assets measures are statistically insignificant. For margin measures, the relationships are positive and statistically significant but not economically significant.

简介:

Vinod Singhal is the Charles W. Brady Chair Professor of Operations Management at the Scheller College of Business at Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA. He has a Ph.D. from University of Rochester, Rochester, USA. Prior to joining Georgia Tech., he worked as a Senior Research Scientist at General Motors Research Labs. His research has focused on the impact of operating decisions on accounting and stock market-based performance measures.

His work has been cited well over 200 times in practitioner publications such as Business Week, The Economist, Fortune, Smart Money, CFO Europe, Financial Times, Investor’s Business Daily, and Daily Telegraph. His research has been extensively cited in academic publications, with over 13,000 citations. He is a Departmental Editor of POM, and Associate Editor of MS. He served as an associate editor at JOM and MSOM. He served on the Academic Advisory Board of the European School of Management and Technology, Germany, and the Board of Examiners of the Georgia Oglethorpe Award, Bell South’s President Quality Award, and the Baldrige Board of Examiners.