现代产业经济学系列讲座第303期

时    间：2026年9月17日15:30-17:00

地    点： 复旦管院史带楼503室

题    目：Consumption Growth from Digital Infrastructure: Evidence from India’s Mobile Internet Rollout

主讲人： Prof.  Sumit Agarwal    (NUS)

主持人：韩亚婕 助理教授

摘要：The long-term growth effects of large-scale infrastructure investments depend crucially on how much households’ consumption expenditure rises as a result of such investments. We estimate the increase in consumption from India’s mobile internet rollout, which was staggered across regions due to legal uncertainties surrounding a major telecom corruption case. Transaction-level data from two of India’s largest banks show that within two years of the rollout, average household income rose by 4.7–5.6%, and consumption by 0.90–0.93 rupees per additional rupee of income. These estimates are broadly consistent with the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH), but additional mechanisms unique to the setting are also at play. These include expanded access to goods via e-commerce (especially for wealthier rural households), greater use of digital payments, and increased insurance adoption that reduced precautionary saving. Overall, our evidence suggests that digital infrastructure durably transforms economic activity, not just through improved productivity-driven income growth, but also through a strong follow-on consumption response.

主讲人介绍：Sumit Agarwal is a distinguished professor and thought leader in the fields of finance, economics, and real estate, currently serving as the Low Tuck Kwong Distinguished Professor of Finance, Economics, and Real Estate at the National University of Singapore (NUS). He is the Managing Director of the Sustainable and Green Finance Institute, Head of the Department of Real Estate, and President of the Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research. He has published over 125 academic papers, with his research appearing in prestigious journals such as the AER, QJE, JPE, Econometrica, RES, JF, JFE, and RFS. His work spans a range of topics including household finance, sustainability, financial institutions, and behavioral economics, receiving over 23,000 citations (Google Scholar, Sep. 2026). He has also authored multiple books, including "Household Financial Management" (2023) and "Kiasunomics" series, widely recognized for bridging academic insights and practical implications.