德勤－复旦会计论坛系列286期讲座

时间：2026年11月17日（周二）13:30

 

地点：史带楼503教室

 

主持人： 朱振梅 副教授

 

报告人：  Edward Lee（University of Manchester）

 

题  目： Extreme Information Ambiguity and Capital-Market Responses

 

摘 要：We investigate capital-market responses to government disclosures characterized by extreme information ambiguity. We exploit the U.S. government’s unprecedented 2026 declassification of Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) records under the Presidential Unsealing and Reporting System for UAP Encounters (PURSUE). Although the initiative makes previously classified records publicly available, the underlying phenomena and their economic implications remain largely unresolved. Nevertheless, the disclosures may convey signals about potential risks and growth opportunities for firms with relevant technological capabilities. We find significantly more favorable market reactions among space-related firms, with three-day cumulative abnormal returns approximately 2.1 percentage points higher than those of other firms. These differential responses are concentrated around actual document releases rather than preliminary announcements and vary with disclosure characteristics. Reactions are stronger when releases involve newly participating government agencies, contain more extensive information, or explicitly describe limitations in existing detection and monitoring technologies. Conversely, relative returns are less favorable when a higher proportion of records provides ordinary explanations for reported phenomena. Across firms, favorable reactions are more pronounced among those specializing in defense and monitoring technologies, newer entrants, R&D-intensive firms, and firms with greater exposure to participating government agencies or greater financial flexibility. Collectively, our findings highlight the distinction between information availability and interpretability, suggesting that government disclosures can generate economically meaningful valuation responses even when their implications for firm value remain highly ambiguous.

 

 

复旦大学管理学院会计学系