金融与财务学系系列讲座之267期

时    2022年5月10日(周二)13:30-15:00

    点:腾讯会议  会议号:318 777 23993   密码: 111111

主    Attention Theory

演讲者:周恕弘教授   西南财经大学

 

摘    要The role of attention in decision making under risk and uncertainty is modeled from the perspective of the decision maker as a cognitive miser. We arrive at the attention utility of a lottery by averaging the utilities of its outcomes through attention-dependent decision weights. In our model, full attention corresponds to decision weights being stable whereas limited attention yields potentially stochastic decision weights reflecting the influence of volatility in top-down attention down (goal directed) attention and bottom-up (stimulus driven) salience.

We first apply our model to value lotteries under full attention and distinguish between whether attention is consequentialist, i.e., exclusive focus on outcomes and their corresponding probabilities. In the setting of valuation of individual lotteries in isolation, our model can account for a broad range of choice phenomena in the literature, including loss-gain framing, Allais behavior, fourfold pattern of risk attitude, the disjunction effect, and continuity in probability weighting, along with discontinuity in valuation from event splitting and uncertainty effects which arise from a weaker form of consequentialist attention. When attention is non-consequentialist, the model provides an attentional basis for source preference including ambiguity aversion. In the setting of binary choice, our model relates to regret theory and can account for preference reversal by admitting the influence of the presence of another lottery.

Under limited attention, more consonant with a cognitive miser, our model delivers choice stochasticity arising especially from bottom-up salience, which tends to be context dependent and volatile, working in tandem with top-down attention. Depending on the relative contributions of top-down and bottom-up attentional processing, the model can approach, in the limit, choice behavior under different forms of full attention. When top-down attention is negligible, our model further reduces to salience theory.

 

简    介Chew Soo Hong is a Professor at the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics where he directs its China Center for Behavioral Economics and Finance. He received his Ph.D. in interdisciplinary studies from the University of British Columbia and has taught at the National University of Singapore, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, University of California, Irvine, Johns Hopkins University and University of Arizona. He is among the pioneers in axiomatic non-expected utility models and has been pursuing research in the biology of decision making in parallel. Chew is a fellow of the Econometric Society, which awarded him the Leonard J. Savage thesis prize, and of the Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory. He has published in well-regarded journals in economics such as Econometrica, Review of Economic Studies, Journal of Political Economy, Economic Journal, Journal of the European Economic Association, and Journal of Economic Theory as well as more biology-oriented ones including Neuron, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, E-BioMedicine, Neuroscience Science and Behavioral Review, Neuroimage, PLoS ONE, and Proceedings of the Royal Society: Biological Sciences.

 

 

 

金融与财务学系

2022-5-5