管理科学系学术讲座

时    间：2024年9月27日（周五）13:30-15:00

地    点：管理学院思源楼524室

主    题：The Nonstationary Newsvendor: Data-Driven Nonparametric Learning

主讲人：闵旭 上海外国语大学国际工商管理学院助理教授

主持人：吴肖乐  复旦大学管理学院教授

摘    要:

We study a newsvendor problem with unknown demand distribution in a nonstationary demand environment over a multi-period time horizon. The demand in each period consists of a time-varying demand level and an additive random shock. Neither the demand level nor the random shock is separately observable. The amount of change in the demand level over the time horizon is measured by a cumulative variation metric. The problem has widespread applications, such as perishable inventory planning, staffing, and medical resource capacity planning in the wake of COVID-19. We design a family of nonparametric dynamic ordering policies, termed two-stage estimation (2SE) policies, that track the shifts in the unknown demand level while accounting for the unobservable random demand shocks. To compute the order quantity in each period, these policies only need the past demand observations, without any access to the underlying demand distribution. For a finite variation “budget,” we prove that our ordering policies are first-order optimal in the sense that their regrets grow at the smallest possible rate. We also extend our analysis to the case of asymptotically large variation budgets.

简   介:

Xu Min is an Assistant Professor in Operations Management, School of Business and Management at Shanghai International Studies University. Prior to joining SISU, she obtained a Ph.D. degree in Management Science from School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University. Dr. Min’s research interests mainly lie in data-driven decision making, especially in the field of demand learning and inventory management, and behavior operations management.

管理科学系

2024-9-12