传奇投资大师安东尼·波顿做客聚劲论坛
直言次级债危机将影响实体经济

2007年11月26日
与股神沃伦•巴菲特共进午餐的价格是62万美元,而与巴菲特齐名的传奇投资大师安东尼•波顿的真知灼见却可以免费聆听。本周五中午,复旦的100多名同学有幸在管院举办的“聚劲论坛”上一睹这位被尊称为“欧洲的彼得•林奇”的投资大师的风采,听听国际金融市场近三十年来一代传奇人物的声音。
      安东尼•波顿先生是全球领先的投资管理公司——富达国际有限公司的董事总经理兼高级投资经理,同时也是全球最成功的基金经理人之一,在业界享有“欧洲的彼得•林奇”的美誉。安东尼•波顿自1979年以来管理过大量基金,获奖无数,被业界尊称为“全球最佳基金经理”。无论是身处牛市或是熊市,近30年来由他掌舵的基金平均年回报率超过20%——这是一项足以令无数基金经理汗颜的纪录,而目前安东尼•波顿所在的富达国际在全球管理着总值高达2909亿美元的资产。
      在昨日主题为“全球股票市场投资趋势”的演讲中,安东尼•波顿面对复旦学子们侃侃而谈,睿智中不乏幽默,逻辑中蕴涵智慧。尽管身为一代投资大师,安东尼•波顿却十分亲和,而他本人对于投资和当前全球金融市场的看法也让同学们获益匪浅。安东尼•波顿表示,一个成功的基金经理必须要勤于分析、渴望成功、独立思考,此外还要有端正的品行和诚实的性格。谈到自己数十年来的投资心得,安东尼•波顿在与同学们分享时说,一项成功的投资必须要充分了解企业的专项优势及其质量、推动企业成长的关键因素,此外还要第一时间倾听管理层传达信息,比大众早尝试、早思考。在具体的操作上,了解
投资风险、定期监视自己的投资观点也非常重要。除此之外,安东尼•波顿提出的“忘掉自己为股票支付的价格、以价值对抗情绪”的观点,更是让大家有种耳目一新的感觉。
      在谈到当前的全球金融市场时,安东尼•波顿并没有像其他一些投资人士一样含糊其词,而是极为坦率的表明了他的观点:次级债危机将影响实体经济。安东尼•波顿认为,随着贷款市场传染效应的扩大,次级债危机的影响将逐步显现,实体经济最终将受到影响。而据安东尼•波顿介绍,实际上早在今年年初他就已经开始谨慎投资,考虑到全球金融市场的牛市已持续超过4年,目前的价值机会已经较少,投资者追逐高风险的行为方式最终将会改变。
      本次讲座时间原定为1个小时,但同学们对安东尼•波顿的精彩演讲极为投入,在经过多位同学的问答环节后,时间不觉以近两个小时。对于复旦学子们的求知精神和综合素质,安东尼•波顿先生也感到非常高兴。据了解,由复旦管理学院MBA举办的“聚劲论坛”自创办以来,已邀请了许多不同国家、不同行业的精英人物,让复旦的学子们有向大师学习的机会。
特约撰稿人:聚劲论坛 王辉

Voice from the audience

 

In general I think it is very important to have guest speakers at University who allow the students to get to know some insights of their businesses and their companies. Of course, it is a great opportunity for us as students to listen to people like Anthony Bolton from Fidelity. In his guest lecture I learned something about the way investors analyze a company and some other things, e.g. that it is important to make sure that your investment decisions should always fit with your character. It’s a great chance to get into a dialogue with top-performing business professionals like Anthony Bolton and I really appreciate further speeches like that at Fudan.

Matthias Recktenwald – Exchange student

从这个稳重的英国长者的言谈举止中,看到了智慧的光芒;有着通过35年金融投资的管理实践,在素以倚重深入的基本面分析,来缔造始终如一业绩而闻名於世的富达公司里,安东尼•波顿依然以“股价走势图来辅强传统的基本面分析”;同时,我有在考虑这么一个问题“中国的股市和企业是否具有西方金融市场和企业的特点,或者只是宏观调控下的一个例?”,安东尼•波顿所提供的思想方法和分析工具在现在的中国是否有现实意义?
      质疑归质疑,像我们这样的中国一亿多的投资者,还是会选择股票、基金、房子这样的投资手段,来抵御人民币升值和通货膨胀的风险;安东尼•波顿所倡导的公司行业的趋势研究和巴菲特所倡导的价值投资有异曲同工之妙,在现如今,中国股市动荡纷杂的环境下,我更加坚定了长期投资的信心。长期持股并不是认为市场不会下跌,而是坦然等待美国1987年那样的下跌,如果400年来没有人可以判断这样的下跌,如果彼得"林奇和巴菲特也不能判断,那么说明上帝不准备让你来干这件事,只能满仓来等待这样的下跌,收益会远远大于损失。对于个人投资者而言,在学习先进的投资理念的同时,也要自己摸索和体会一些东西!

王金龙 – 07秋5班

Listen to the wisdom
I really appreciate the lecture given by Anthony Bolton, one of the best investor all over the world today. It’s a great chance to hear the voice from the master in the field of investment face to face.
Mr. Bolton is so humble and approachable. He showed us a fantastic presentation today which touched me a lot. The presentation showed us the real life which is always intensive and creative. Investors confront with the piles of information and tempter; a tiny mistake may mean a huge disaster to them. Thousands of investors are forgotten in the long history and the greatest one are remembered. Mr. Bolton is one of them. His experiences on investment are wise and effective.
Hear direct from the management.
Try and think two moves ahead of the crowd.
Seek ideas from a wide range of sources.
Re-examine your investment thesis at regular intervals.
Etc.
All of these are so precious to our Chinese MBA students most of whom are willing to join the industry of investment banking.
No pains, no gains, however, the most sentence that moved me today is “learn from the lessons”. No matter how great an investor is, he has ever made some mistakes, thus, how to learn and how much he could learn from the lessons is the most important.
Mr. Bolton also analyzed the situation of recent environment of investment of China, which also taught us a lot.
It’s a great presentation, and I like it very much.

朱萌 Michael Zhu – 07秋2班

A hunger for analysis, flexible conviction, detailed generalist, right temperament, desire to win, integrity, independent thinking, experience, being happy to go against the crowd are the key qualities of a good fund manager in Mr. Anthony Bolton's eyes. Mr. Bolton himself is exactly that kind of person. In addition to all kinds of stories about him, Mr. Bolton's wonderful presentation at Fudan University last Friday has provided us a good chance to watch a master of investment from a few meters away. His calmness, grace and insight impressed us a lot.
"Be happy to go against the crowd," said Mr. Bolton. It is much easier to say than to do so. But that is how Mr. Bolton has done for the past thirty years and how he has succeeded. Anthony Bolton means the great contrarian!

戴建华 Joshua Dai – 07秋2班

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