TOPIC 1: China Macro
(Delivered by Mr. Ding Shuang, Senior China Economist, Citi Research)
The world economy now is undergoing weak recovery with US having sub-par growthand Euro zone back to recession. Within the global context, China’s economic growth is slowing down from a double-digit GDP growth to sub-8% in near term. And the government is shifting its policy focus from curbing inflation to supporting overall growth by monetary policy, fiscal policy and property policy, etc.When the worst expectation of the economy comes true, the ECB with unlimited power will choose to intervene the market.
After China’s leadership transition, the new government may take measures to have economic growth more sustainable. And this implicates that it may tolerate slower growth for better quality, correct cost distortions, and deregulate investment to involve private capital.
China’s future economic growth will depend more on domestic consumption as investment efficiency declining.
TOPIC 2: China Corporate Banking
(Delivered by Mr. Henry Zhang, Executive Vice President of Citibank (China) Co., Ltd. General Manager of Corporate Banking, China)
3 angles: trade flow of China, China outbound investment, global bond market
China’s trade flow during the following 20 years will have higher volume and be more balanced in different markets.
With more and more Chinese enterprises going abroad, Chinese bond market is also developing. In Nov 2010, China returned to the global bond market to get money, after a decade stopping, to issue international bond.
The China’s bankers are rich and dynamic. The banking industry has been developing in a quick pace. China has a highly concentrated market, with big 5 state-owned banks represent almost half of market and foreign banks only 1.8%. However, it’s gradually liberalizing regulatory framework and allowing further entry and expansion of foreign banks. All major licenses had been already issued to foreign banks like credit card.
When a corporate expands by M&A business in the global market, it needs bank to help it with funding, positioning the right market and finding the right project. Generally, the way of funding includes issuing bond or security, bank loan or engaging in other investors.
Citi bank plays an important role in the market, especially for the business of the Chinese largest corporations like Sinopec. It has just finished offering bridge loan and solving the funding problem of Alibaba buying back the 20% shares from Yahoo in 7 billion USD.
FUDAN MBA PROGRAM
CITI COURSE TA: Leo SUN(孙旭东)、Jason HU (胡志杰), 2012 IMBA Class 2
