Time: 15:30-17:00, Thursday, September 17, 2026

Venue: Guoshun Campus, Room 503, Starr Building

Speaker: Professor Sumit Agarwal, National University of Singapore (NUS)

Moderator: Assistant Professor Yajie Han

Topic: Consumption Growth from Digital Infrastructure: Evidence from India’s Mobile Internet Rollout

Abstract: The long-term growth effects of large-scale infrastructure investments depend crucially on how much households' consumption expenditure rises as a result of such investments. We estimate the increase in consumption from India's mobile internet rollout, which was staggered across regions due to legal uncertainties surrounding a major telecom corruption case. Transaction-level data from two of India's largest banks show that within two years of the rollout, average household income rose by 4.7-5.6%, and consumption by 0.90-0.93 rupees per additional rupee of income. These estimates are broadly consistent with the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH), but additional mechanisms unique to the setting are also at play. These include expanded access to goods via e-commerce (especially for wealthier rural households), greater use of digital payments, and increased insurance adoption that reduced precautionary saving. Overall, our evidence suggests that digital infrastructure durably transforms economic activity, not just through improved productivity-driven income growth, but also through a strong follow-on consumption response.

Bio: Sumit Agarwal is a distinguished scholar and thought leader in finance, economics, and real estate. He currently serves as the Low Tuck Kwong Distinguished Professor of Finance, Economics, and Real Estate at the National University of Singapore (NUS). He is Managing Director of the Sustainable and Green Finance Institute, Head of the Department of Real Estate, and President of the Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research. He has published more than 125 academic papers, with his research appearing in prestigious journals including AER, QJE, JPE, Econometrica, RES, JF, JFE, and RFS. His work spans household finance, sustainability, financial institutions, and behavioral economics and had received more than 23,000 citations on Google Scholar as of September 2026. He has also authored several books, including Household Financial Management (2023) and the Kiasunomics series, which are widely recognized for bridging academic insight and practical implications.